What’s Going On With These Roster Cuts?
A Clear Explanation of Why Cuts Are Happening, How It’ll Affect Recruiting, and What You Should Do About It
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What’s Going On?
If you follow swimming news sites or social feeds, you’ve likely started to hear about roster cuts happening across Division 1. Some of the best, most well funded teams in the country, like UVA and Texas, are removing swimmers and divers (“cutting them”) from their roster, and other schools are even cutting their entire programs. These are a few of the public examples, but there are plenty of murmurs in coaching and the community that there will be far more as we move into the spring (see our projections here). From what we hear from coaches we talk to, there will also likely be more committed swimmers getting “dropped” by their school because of these roster cuts. A few key definitions:
Cut- when a swimmer who had a roster spot (either as a recruit or returning athlete) has that spot taken away from them.
NIL- Name, image, and likeness. The NCAA previously used to prevent athletes from making money off their Name, Image, or Likeness, but starting in 2021, permitted it. This meant athletes could start making money by signing brand deals and engaging with companies in return for appearances, social media posts, and more.
Revenue Generating Programs- Not all collegiate teams generate money. Sports like football and basketball generate almost all of the money that an athletic department makes, while sports like swimming generate almost none or lose money for the athletic department (outside of the tuition they attract).
Power 4- The four largest conferences in terms of football and basketball revenue. The Power 4 is made up of the ACC, SEC, BIG10, and BIG12.
Why Is This Happening?
The Lawsuit
Most of the increase in changes traces back to the recent lawsuit that was settled: House v. NCAA. The case has three key legal ramifications:
The NCAA must pay previous athletes 2.8 billion dollars who missed out on their NIL money because it wasn’t permitted when they were an athlete.
Schools that “opt in” to the settlement (more on that shortly) can now share up to 20.5 million dollars of their revenue with athletes. This means that to attract the best football/basketball recruits (revenue generators) you’ll need to be sharing this revenue with those athletes. There is not suddenly 20.5 million dollars coming into these athletic departments, so this is a huge new cost for athletic departments.
Schools that “opt in” to the settlement must institute limited roster spots (varying sport to sport, set at 30 for swimming), with ”unlimited” scholarships for all members. This does not mean that every athlete must be offered a scholarship, just that the NCAA cannot mandate a scholarship limit. Coaches we’ve talked to have said this will likely result in the same or more scholarships on the women’s side, and the same or fewer on the men’s side, depending on the program.
Opting In
Note that schools must opt in to this settlement. If they don’t, they won’t be obligated to contribute to the back pay (2.8 billion dollars), or revenue sharing, and also won’t be subject to limited roster spots. They will instead be held to old scholarship limits (9.9 men/14.9 women). Schools likely to not opt in are schools that aren’t generating huge amounts from their football or basketball teams and don’t want to play the game of sharing 20.5 million dollars a year (this number is also likely to increase each year).
Even if schools don’t opt in, they will still feel the effects of this settlement because of the musical chairs that will start (described below).
Why Are Schools Limiting Rosters
The NCAA limiting swim and dive rosters to 30 means that automatically many teams have to cut athletes to make that number (see our cut tracker for estimates).
Additionally, the first two ramifications (back pay and revenue sharing) create a financial pressure on athletic departments to balance their budgets. Since swimming generally doesn’t generate revenue, it’s constantly at risk of being cut or at the very least reduced in size. Schools are deciding this on a case by case basis, and the SEC has even mandated a 22 man limit on the men’s swim programs. The goal of any cuts beyond the NCAA mandated 30 is to reduce the costs of these programs, so that schools can more easily find the 20.5 million they have to share with athletes now.
Mens teams are further at risk because as other programs get cut for budgetary reasons, mens programs will have to be cut to balance the male and female contingents in the athletic department to follow Title IX.
How Will Recruiting Change?
We’ve talked to several coaches about how this will affect recruiting going forward. We’ve boiled this down into five key changes.
Firstly, and most obviously, recruiting classes will have to shrink. Even with attrition on a college team, recruiting 10 swimmers each class is just not sustainable when you need to maintain a roster of 30. We’ve heard numbers between 4 and 9 from our coaches, and it will likely vary year to year and school to school. Some coaches at more prominent Division 1 programs have mentioned that half of each of their recruiting classes will now be made up of transfers.
Because of these roster sizes, each recruit will matter more. Recruits with a history of injuries are going to be harder to take a risk on, and coaches have all mentioned they’ll be paying more attention to recent trajectory- they can’t take a swimmer who needs a jump start they may not work.
To alleviate this, some coaches have mentioned pushing recruiting later for more recruits. There will still be junior year commits, but it’s going to be a game of “how long can we wait” to offer swimmers before losing them to other schools.
Several coaches also mentioned recruiting more internationally, where they can find more developed, older recruits.
Finally, every coach we talked to mentioned this starting a game of “musical chairs” that will be most prominent this off season with the huge number of cut swimmers that transfer. However, it will not slow down, as more established programs will rely on NIL money and team success to lure away the most elite swimmers via transfer. As swimmers are cut, a certain percentage of them (let’s call it 50%… that is not an accurate number though, just an example) will look at slower schools. This will cause cuts at slower schools, where 50% of those cuts will transfer to slower schools, and so on. The amount of transfers decreases as you get away from Top 10 schools, but will still be felt all the way to D3.
What Should You Do?
Right now, there are so many unknowns that there’s not a silver bullet to alleviate the effects of this. We’re advising all of our clients to do the following three things:
Expand your list. Schools that may not seem fast enough for you now will likely improve as they cull their numbers and pick up transfers. Additionally, schools that might seem like a good fit now may get faster, may start recruiting more internationally, or may have to cut their roster further. The best way to prepare for the unknowns is to have more options.
Discuss roster spots, admissions support, and scholarships earlier in the process. This does not mean you should demand a scholarship earlier, it means you should broach the subject of support earlier. After a couple of phone calls, don’t be afraid to ask “I know with all the recent NCAA changes, roster sizes are changing quickly. Do you see those changes affecting your school/scholarships/admissions support? And if so, how will that impact my standing in receiving a roster spot/scholarship/admissions support?” Coaches likely will not know what their plan or constraints will be next year as of now, but they’ll give you their best guess, which should help inform your understanding of where you sit with that team.
Emphasize trajectory and health more. Bring up your improving trajectory and good health in your first email, and connect the dots for the coach: “I have improved in all of my main events every season for the last _ seasons. Additionally, I have not had any significant injuries in the last four years, and take my healthy extremely seriously. Both of these put me in a great position to be a four year asset to your team, from the day I walk on campus to the day I graduate.”
In Summary
A lot is changing quickly for recruits, current student athletes, and coaches. This is going to change what it means to be a Division 1 athlete, and what college swimming is. You can’t control that, but you can control the schools you’re looking at and how you communicate with coaches. Don’t spend more time stressing than you need to- do your best to redirect that to finding a school that could be a great fit- even if it’s one you weren’t considering a few months ago.
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